The Morning Read

I apologize for the brief absence. Here's the morning read - let's get back to it.

• NYSE, Nasdaq join to push for trading rule - WSJ
• China to establish five private banks - WSJ
• Don't celebrate this anniversary - WSJ
• Bubble watch: growth is good - Alphaville
• Richest Scandinavians lose jobs as exporters fight for trade - Bloomberg

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different.'"

- Sir John Templeton

Good morning, ladies and gents. After a brief hiatus yesterday, I am back to the printing presses so to speak. Let's take a look at where the markets are shaking out this morning, shall we?

Asian markets were slightly higher overnight - the Nikkei added 0.69%, Hong Kong's Seng index was flat, and the Shanghai Shenzen 300 added 0.52%. European markets are mixed this morning. The FTSE is down 0.35%, while the DAX is up 0.20%. Not a whole lot of excitement to speak of this morning.

US futures are basically flat this morning - /ES -1.00, /YM -2.00, and /NQ up 1.75.

Yesterday, we saw markets open lower and continue the selloff during the early part of the day. Surprisingly, the trade from late-morning was higher into the close. Treasuries have sold off from recent strength - a trade I was a little early on, and subsequently missed the move - with the TLT falling from a recent high of 109.18 to settle at 106 yesterday.

It is getting old saying it, but there is no use in shorting the market. The profitable trade is higher still. Think about what most portfolio managers, analysts, institutional investors, et al are thinking. "We cannot possible see another strong year after the performance equities put in last year."

Equities are trading on the back of the largest scale central bank liquidity experiment in modern history. The incredibly invasive actions that the Fed, the ECB, and a litany of other central banks have participated in are likely to create very unusual and extraordinary times. It feels like Alan Greenspan all over again, just without the "new era" rhetoric.

Someday, the reckoning will be upon us. That day is not today, and is unlikely to show its face this year. If markets do take a breather and sell off, be wary of the pundits pounding the table, saying "this is it! This is the big correction!" They've been wrong since last summer.

Heads or tails, "this time" is never different.