Monday, March 3, 2014

The Evening Read

And March is off to the races. Here's what I'm reading tonight.
"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"

- Will Rogers

If you are reading this, and also happen to be an active market participant, I do hope that you were not too badly hurt today. Around noon, it looked as though the sky was falling; however, US markets found a bid and traded higher off of the lows of the day. Volume on SPY was 167m - the most we have seen since February 7. Given the the significant "risk off" mood seen 'round the world overnight, I think today's action is somewhat bullish.

I added long positions in BAC and TSLA (the relative strength in the electric car-maker was unreal), and I will continue the hunt this evening for other names that held up well during today's barrage of geopolitical-inspired selling.

US Treasuries continued to move higher today, understandable considering traders' nervous jitters over the Ukraine/Russia saga. Thinking a little longer-term, however, this seems like somewhat of a juxtaposition in my opinion. The recovery in the US is still on track (and I believe it will likely pick up steam heading into the summer), ergo, the Fed will continue with the taper and eventually the discussion will change about rates. Instead of "sometime in late 2015," the rate-hike rhetoric will become much less, well, rhetorical and more based on an actual date that falls on a calendar.

What will happen to equities when the powers-that-be at the Fed decide that the good 'ole USofA's economy is done with the training wheels? I can imagine what would happen to treasuries, and let's just say I am not a buyer.

Heads, I might even be a seller. Tails, perhaps not just yet.

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