Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Central Banks: Too Successful to Quit?

Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England, has spent much of the morning explaining and offering the central bank's new "forward guidance." My heart breaks for the ransquawk employees, what with the unimaginably scratchy throats they must be suffering from as they spout the latest metric at the implied behest of Mr. Carney.

Forward guidance used to be obsessed over only by the analysts, investors and traders of a stock - waiting with baited breath as the CEO goes over expectations for the coming quarter and year. Now - primarily through the unprecedented moves of the Federal Reserve - central bankers everywhere are warming up to the idea of giving "color" on future moves and decisions. 

I imagine Alan Greenspan - rocking in his chair on the porch, thousand-yard stare on his face - imparting unwanted wisdom to a grandson, "Back in my day, we only had one lever to pull: interest rates."

Global markets have applauded the liquidity measures and accommodation by Ben Bernanke & Co. since 2008 with a resounding cheer of "up we go!" This leads me to wonder: what happens when central bankers are left to muddle about with just crappy 'ole interest rates? And perhaps more importantly, how will markets sober up to not having central bank forward guidance to salivate over? Do central bankers now see themselves as so integral to normal market operation that they will never leave "crisis" mode?  I sure hope not. I could do without seeing too much of Ms. Yellen.

Heads, we're higher. Tails, start shorting.


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